The Fed should issue the charge-off and delinquency rates for the 2nd quarter of 2018 on or about August 18th.
As we’ve done every quarter over the past few years, following is RDS’s predictions for the soon-to-be-reported value of charge-off rates on all types of consumers loans through the 1st quarter of 2019.
As a reference, RDS uses a proprietary Error Correction Model to predict trends in the charge-off rates.  For a more in-depth understanding of the ECM, check out this earlier post.
A few notes on our new report:

  • It is expected that the overall consumer loan charge-off rate increases throughout 2018 similar to 2017.
  • Though the trend is still increasing, the new forecast is not as steep as previous ones.


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