In  anticipation of the upcoming release by the Federal Reserve on the charge-off and delinquency rates for the 2nd quarter of 2016 we are updating our prediction of the consumer loan charge-off rates. In the previous post from this series we forecasted the (seasonally adjusted) values of Consumer Loan charge-off rates for the 4th quarter of 2015 and the 1st quarter of 2016 while the last published number by the Federal Reserve was for the 3rd quarter of 2015 charge-off rate.

Below is our updated forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016. The Federal Reserve reported 1.85% for the seasonally adjusted value of charge-off rate on all consumer loans for the first quarter of 2016. Similarly to the previous post, this post also presents the plot of actual and forecasted values as well as the table of forecasted values.

 

Charge-off_Q2Q3_2016

 

table