The Fed should issue the charge-off and delinquency rates for the 1st quarter of 2018 on or about May 18th.

As we’ve done every quarter over the past few years, following is RDS’s predictions for the soon-to-be-reported value of charge-off rates on all types of consumers loans through the 4th quarter of 2018.

As a reference, RDS uses a proprietary Error Correct Model to predict trends in the charge-off rates.  For a more in-depth understanding of the ECM, check out this earlier post.

A few notes about this latest prediction:

  • We expect the charge-off rate to continue trending upward through the end of 2018, as it did in 2017
  • Although the trend is increasing, our new forecast shows it flattening relative to our previous charge-off post

Rplot

Table (1)

ActVsPred