The Fed should issue the charge-off and delinquency rates for the 4th quarter of 2017 on or about February 18.

As we’ve done every quarter over the past few years, following is RDS’ predictions for the soon-to-be-reported value of charge-off rates on all types of consumers loans through the 3rd quarter of 2018.

As a reference, RDS uses a proprietary Error Correct Model to predict trends in the charge-off rates.  For a more in-depth understanding of the ECM, check out this earlier post.

A few notes about this latest prediction:

  • We expect the charge-off rate to continue trending upward through the end of 2018, relative to previous years
  • Although the trend is increasing, our new forecast shows it flattening relative to our previous post.


Table (1)


Our next charge-off update will be published the second week of April.