The Federal Reserve Bank just reported the Consumer Loan Charge-off Rate (CLCOR) for the fourth quarter of 2022. According to the data published back in Nov 2022, the total seasonally adjusted CLCOR figure for 2022Q3 was 1.28%, above 2022Q2 level at 1.10%. Since 2021Q3, the historic bottom of the series, the CLCOR has been increasing. Our forecast before the recent published data predicted another step in the increasing trend at 1.33%. The new published data for CLCOR at 2022Q4 is 1.65% which is 25 percent higher than its previous quarter. Also, the Delinquency Rate for Consumer Loans continued its increasing trend in 2022Q4 following the upward trend of its previous quarters. If this rapid growth in delinquency and charge-off rates continues, we may see the pre-pandemic levels much sooner than anticipated. Below, you can see the performance of our predictions against the actual values since 2015Q4 that we started predicting CLCOR on a regular basis.

To learn more about the RDS Business Intelligence team, contact:

Kacey Rask : Vice-President, Portfolio Servicing

[email protected] /513.489.8877, ext. 261