RDS Housing Market Update

The RDS Business Intelligence team recently updated its Econometrix Tableau real estate dashboards: CLICK HERE

MORTGAGE RATES

After hitting a 20-year high of 7.08% in November of 2022, the rate has softened a bit. The 30-year fixed mortgage now stands at 6.12%, down 14% from the November high. Still, a year ago, the 30 year fixed stood at 3.69%, nearly half the current rate. Below we put mortgage rates in context, looking back 50 years by decade:

2020s: 3.89%
2010s: 4.09%
2000s: 6.29%
1990s: 8.12%
1980s: 12.70%
1970s: 8.90%

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports weekly on two types of mortgage applications:

MBA Purchase Index: The Purchase Index is a leading indicator of home sales by 4-6 weeks, meaning that it is a predictor of housing activity. Housing economists and home builders use the index to forecast new and existing home sales. The current index stands at 190.1, down 32% versus a year ago.

MBA Refinance Index: The Refinance Index is a tool to predict mortgage activity. Homebuilders pay attention to the Refinance Index because it is a leading indicator of home sales. On the other hand, mortgage investors also take notice of the index as it is a leading indicator of mortgage pre-payment activity. The current refinance index is at 549, down a staggering 72% versus the same time a year ago. For perspective, the refinance index stood at 6,419 in March, 2020.

HOME SALES NOTE: Home sale data lags by several months, so our current Tableau dashboard is based on the most recent, seasonally-adjust home sales. At the end of December, home sales stood at 616,000, down 24% from a year ago. In a little over a year and a half, home sales have fallen 40% from their 15-year high of 1,021,000 in March, 2021

To learn more about the RDS Business Intelligence team, contact:

Kacey Rask : Vice-President, Portfolio Servicing