This is our 23rd consecutive post predicting the Federal Reserve’s quarterly consumer loan charge off rate.
The Federal Reserve Bank will soon report the Consumer Loan Charge-off Rate (CLCOR) for the first quarter of 2022. According to the data published on Feb 18th 2022, the total seasonally adjusted CLCOR figure for the 2021Q4 was 0.91% reversing the downward trend of its previous quarters. However, when we look at the charge-off rates by category, the Charge-off Rate on Credit Card Loans continued its downward trend and reported its lowest level ever in 2022Q4 at 1.57% (the most recent published number).
Here is a LINK to the graph above.
On the other hand, the Delinquency Rate for Consumer Loans increased in 2021Q4 from the 2021Q3 levels for all consumer loans as well as the subcategories.
Here’s the LINK to the graph above.
The current most recent prediction for the upcoming report for 2022Q1 is 1.01% which shows an upward trend from the previous quarter. The overall trend for the next four quarters also looks upward suggesting that the series hit the bottom in 2021Q3.
Here are the predictions for the next four coming quarters:
Below, you can see the performance of our predictions against the actual values since 2015Q4 that we started predicting CLCOR on a regular basis.
CLICK HERE to see an interactive dashboard of our charge-off predictions on the RDS Tableau Public page.
To learn more about the RDS Business Intelligence team contact:
Kacey Rask : Vice-President, Portfolio Servicing
Kacey.email@example.com / 513.489.8877, ext. 261